After a period of challenges and consolidation, the global carbon credit market is projected to enter a new growth cycle from 2025, according to a recent report by MSCI Carbon Markets, an international carbon credit market researcher. With the market estimated at US$1.5 billion in 2024, it is expected to grow to US$35 billion by 2030 and an impressive US$200 billion by 2050. These figures point to a sector that could become central to climate change mitigation if climate commitments are effectively implemented.
The report highlighted significant improvements in the integrity and quality of carbon credits. In two years, the proportion of retired credits with the lowest ratings (CCC) fell from 29% to 15%, while credits with the highest ratings (A or AA) doubled, from 6% to 12%. This evolution reflects the growing demand for high-integrity projects, especially those that use nature-based solutions to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
However, challenges remain. The MSCI study revealed that by July 2024, almost half (47%) of retired carbon credits were from low-rated projects (B or below). Despite this, the introduction of more stringent standards, such as the Integrity Council's Carbon Core Principles for the Voluntary Carbon Market, has brought a positive boost to the sector.
Although often criticized as a tool that allows companies to offset emissions without reducing their carbon footprint, MSCI data suggests otherwise. Companies using carbon credits have demonstrated greater transparency in emissions and set more robust reduction targets, achieving an average annual reduction of 3.6% in direct emissions, more than double that of companies that do not use credits.
Pará: Protagonist in the Carbon Credits scenario
Pará is emerging as a strategic state in this market, driven by its unique biodiversity and the hosting of COP30, known as the "COP of the Forest". The event, to be held in Belém in 2025, is expected to place the state at the center of global climate discussions, reinforcing its position as a powerhouse in nature-based solutions. With a vast territory covered by forests, Pará has unparalleled potential for carbon credit projects aimed at environmental preservation and reforestation. The use of carbon credits in regulatory schemes has also advanced.
Countries such as Australia, South Africa and Colombia are already incorporating credits into their emissions reduction programs. The European Union, historically cautious, is considering allowing carbon dioxide removal credits into its emissions market. With growing demand and stricter regulations, the carbon credit market presents not only a promising path to combat climate change, but also a global economic opportunity. Experts, however, emphasize the need to ensure transparency and real impact in projects, avoiding practices that do not result in concrete environmental benefits.
For Brazilian companies, such as Amazon Connection Carbon, based in the Amazon, the international scenario reinforces the importance of adopting robust and sustainable practices that combine environmental protection and economic growth. The company is already a reference in solutions such as carbon neutralization and reforestation projects, standing out in the national and international markets.
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