Carbon Market: 27.4% Growth Up to 2034
- Amazon Connection Carbon
- Apr 12
- 3 min read
The carbon market is projected to undergo substantial expansion over the next decade, with cumulative growth estimates reaching 27.4% by 2034, according to industry analyses. This projection reflects recent market dynamics, including the appreciation of high-quality carbon credits, regulatory advancements, and increasing decarbonization pressures aligned with the objectives set forth in the Paris Agreement.
Key Growth Drivers
Strengthened Regulatory Frameworks
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which generated USD 36 billion in revenue in 2021, is currently undergoing expansion to include sectors such as maritime transport. The initiative aims to reduce emissions by 62% by 2030, reinforcing the system’s pivotal role in achieving climate targets.
Surge in the Voluntary Carbon Market
Voluntary carbon market transactions experienced a 60% increase in value in 2021. The Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets (TSVCM) has indicated the necessity of a fifteen-fold scale-up by 2030 to meet global climate objectives (Capital Reset).
Latin America as a Key Player
The Latin American region—particularly Brazil, which will host COP30 in 2025—is expected to play a leading role in carbon sequestration initiatives such as reforestation, thereby solidifying its strategic position within the global carbon market.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Experts forecast that the global carbon market will reach a valuation of USD 50 billion by 2030, with carbon credits linked to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices gaining increased prominence and credibility.
Voluntary Carbon Market in 2024: Transformation and Consolidation
The voluntary carbon market underwent significant transformations in 2024. Despite challenges arising from price volatility, the market witnessed the consolidation of quality benchmarks, coupled with heightened demand for high-integrity credits—particularly those associated with reforestation and advanced forest management practices. These developments suggest a promising outlook for 2025, marked by the emergence of new methodologies and a growing number of corporations committing to stringent climate targets.
Progress in Brazil and Worldwide
In Brazil, the enactment of the Carbon Market Bill in late 2024 marked a critical step forward in the development of the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading System (SBCE). This legislative advancement precedes the COP30 conference, which will be held in Belém, Pará. While full implementation of the SBCE is slated for 2029, important milestones are anticipated in the current year, including further regulations concerning quota allocations, land use governance, and the establishment of clearly defined supervisory roles.
At the international level, the conclusion of negotiations regarding the operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement—finalized during COP29 in Azerbaijan at the end of last year—is a major achievement. This mechanism outlines the framework for international cooperation on emissions reductions, with operational deployment scheduled for the current year. Expectations are high for the establishment of clear methodological standards and the creation of a centralized transaction registry, both of which are critical to supporting the global carbon trading infrastructure and ensuring policy coherence.
The Role of ACC in the Carbon Market
These advancements underscore the strategic importance of the carbon market in facilitating the transition toward a low-carbon economy. With increasing demand for high-quality carbon credits and the implementation of robust regulatory systems, the carbon market is becoming an indispensable instrument for corporations aiming to meet their climate commitments.
Amazon Connection Carbon, a firm specialized in the development of carbon credit projects, stands prepared to support businesses in the deployment of sustainable initiatives that not only contribute to emissions reductions but also promote long-term environmental conservation.
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